Ensaios sobre a medição da pressão no mercado de câmbio em Marrocos
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.23882/rmd.23127Palavras-chave:
taxa de câmbio, mercado de câmbio, Índice EMP, Depressão, MarrocosResumo
Este artigo tem como objetivo medir a pressão sobre o mercado cambial marroquino através do índice EMPI. Constatou-se que nenhuma crise foi sinalizada por esse índice durante os anos de 2018 e 2019, o que significa que a política de flexibilização gradual do regime cambial, que entrou em vigor em janeiro de 2018, teve papel fundamental nesse sentido. Consequentemente, esta reforma teria sem dúvida reduzido a pressão sobre a taxa de câmbio ao tornar a economia marroquina mais resiliente e menos vulnerável a choques exógenos. Assim, foram identificados 8 períodos de crise com probabilidades significativamente altas. Destes 8 períodos, podemos distinguir 3 períodos que têm sido planeados com mais intensidade, nomeadamente no segundo semestre de 2008, no primeiro semestre de 2012 e 2017.
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Direitos de Autor (c) 2023 Ahmed Hrifa
Este trabalho encontra-se publicado com a Creative Commons Atribuição-NãoComercial 4.0.
