Analysis of the possibility of moving to a new stage

in the process of flexibilization of the exchange rate regime in Morocco

Résumé

Given the profound structural changes in the national economy and its increasingly increased openness to the outside world, the transition to a more flexible exchange rate regime constitutes a fundamental reform in order to strengthen the competitiveness of the economy.  its resilience to exogenous shocks and the level of its potential growth. However, the transition to more flexibility is not without risk, it would be accompanied by massive inflows of foreign capital motivated mainly by expectations of appreciation of the national currency and the interest rate differential, which will result in excess bank liquidity and excessive growth of reserves causing greater inflationary pressures and aggravation of financial fragilities and exchange rate risk. The objective of this article is therefore to question the capacity of the Moroccan economy through its macroeconomic fundamentals, its financial markets and its institutions, to support the transition to a new stage in the process of flexibilization of the exchange rate regime. The results show that this transition still has to wait, the ground needs to be further prepared.