Élasticités économiques, environnementales et démographiques de la demande de gaz naturel
Une revue de littérature
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.23882/emss.24218Mots-clés :
demande de gaz naturel, Elasticité prix, Elasticité revenuRésumé
Cet article procède à un examen complet de diverses estimations des réponses à la demande de gaz naturel. Nous considérons un flux d'études empiriques qui ont été menées après 1950. Le but de cet article est de fournir une image complète, de synthétiser et d'analyser les études publiées dans ce domaine depuis la première étude expérimentale jusqu'au début de 2019. Dans cette étude, nous discutons des méthodes et techniques utilisées, du domaine d'application, des variables, des sources de données et de la taille des données. La plupart des études ont étudié les élasticités-prix et les revenus ; beaucoup moins se sont concentrés sur les variables démographiques. Ces travaux revêtiront une importance significative pour les futurs chercheurs visant à analyser la demande de gaz naturel.
Références
Alberini, A., Gans, W., & Velez-Lopez, D. (2011). Residential consumption of gas and electricity in the US: The role of prices and income. Energy Economics, 33(5), 870-881.
Al-Sahlawi, M. A. (1989). The demand for natural gas: a survey of price and income elasticities. The Energy Journal, 10(1).
Andersen, T. B., Nilsen, O. B., & Tveteras, R. (2011). How is demand for natural gas determined across European industrial sectors?. Energy Policy, 39(9), 5499-5508.
Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The review of economic studies, 58(2), 277-297.
Asche, F., Nilsen, O. B., & Tveterås, R. (2008). Natural gas demand in the European household sector. The Energy Journal, 29(3), 27.
Baker, P., Blundell, R., & Micklewright, J. (1989). Modelling household energy expenditures using micro-data. The Economic Journal, 99(397), 720-738.
Balestra, P., & Nerlove, M. (1966). Pooling cross section and time series data in the estimation of a dynamic model: The demand for natural gas. Econometrica (pre-1986), 34(3), 585.
Barnes, R., Gillingham, R., & Hagemann, R. (1982). The short-run residential demand for natural gas. The Energy Journal, 3(1), 59-72.
Beierlein, J. G., Dunn, J. W., & McConnon, J. C. (1981). The demand for electricity and natural gas in the northeastern United States. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 403-408.
Berkhout, P. H., Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A., & Muskens, J. C. (2004). The ex post impact of an energy tax on household energy demand. Energy economics, 26(3), 297-317.
Berndt, E. R., & Watkins, G. C. (1977). Demand for natural gas: Residential and commercial markets in Ontario and British Columbia. Canadian Journal of Economics, 97-111.
Bernstein, R., & Madlener, R. (2011). Residential natural gas demand elasticities in OECD countries: An ARDL bounds testing approach.
Bianco, V., Scarpa, F., & Tagliafico, L. A. (2014). Scenario analysis of nonresidential natural gas consumption in Italy. Applied Energy, 113, 392-403.
Bilgili, F. (2014). Long run elasticities of demand for natural gas: OECD panel data evidence. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 9(4), 334-341.
Blackorby, C., & Russell, R. R. (1997). Two-stage budgeting: An extension of Gorman's theorem. Economic Theory, 9(1), 185-193.
Blattenberger, G. R., Taylor, L. D., & Rennhack, R. K. (1983). Natural gas availability and the residential demand for energy. The Energy Journal, 4(1), 23-45.
Bloch, F. E. (1980). Residential demand for natural gas. Journal of Urban Economics, 7(3), 371-383.
Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
Burke, P. J., & Yang, H. (2016). The price and income elasticities of natural gas demand: International evidence. Energy Economics, 59, 466-474.
Chai, J., Shi, H., Zhou, X., & Wang, S. (2018). The Price Elasticity of Natural Gas Demand in China: A Meta-Regression Analysis. Energies, 11(12), 3255.
Dagher, L. (2012). Natural gas demand at the utility level: an application of dynamic elasticities. Energy Economics, 34(4), 961-969.
Dilaver, Ö., Dilaver, Z., & Hunt, L. C. (2014). What drives natural gas consumption in Europe? Analysis and projections. Journal of Natural Gas Science and Engineering, 19, 125-136.
Dudley, B. (2018). BP statistical review of world energy. BP Statistical Review, London, UK, accessed Aug, 6, 2018.
Erdogdu, E. (2010). Natural gas demand in Turkey. Applied Energy, 87(1), 211-219.
Estrada, J., & Fugleberg, O. (1989). Price elasticities of natural gas demand in France and West Germany. The Energy Journal, 77-90.
Feenstra, R. C., Inklaar, R., & Timmer, M. P. (2015). The next generation of the Penn World Table. American economic review, 105(10), 3150-82.
Galliker, J. P. (1979). State energy fuel prices by major economic sector from 1960 through 1977 (No. DOE/EIA-0190). Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Office of Consumption Data System.
Gautam, T. K., & Paudel, K. P. (2018). The demand for natural gas in the Northeastern United States. Energy, 158, 890-898.
Gorman, W.M., 1959a. Separable utility and aggregation. Econometrica 27, 469– 481.
Gorman, W.M., 1959b. The empirical implications of a utility tree: a further comment. Econometrica 27, 489.
Green, R. D. (1987). Regional variations in US consumer response to price changes in home heating fuels: the Northeast and the South. Applied Economics, 19(9), 1261-1268.
Haas, R., & Schipper, L. (1998). Residential energy demand in OECD-countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements. Energy economics, 20(4), 421-442.
Harold, J., Lyons, S., & Cullinan, J. (2015). The determinants of residential gas demand in Ireland. Energy Economics, 51, 475-483.
Harris, I. P. D. J., Jones, P. D., Osborn, T. J., & Lister, D. H. (2014). Updated high‐resolution grids of monthly climatic observations–the CRU TS3. 10 Dataset. International journal of climatology, 34(3), 623-642.
Hausmann, J. A., Kinnucan, M., & McFaddden, D. (1979). A two-level electricity demand model: Evaluation of the Connecticut time-of-day pricing test. Journal of Econometrics, 10(3), 263-289.
Hubbert, M. K. (1949). Energy from fossil fuels. Science, 109(2823), 103-109.
Javid, M., Khan, F. N., & Arif, U. (2022). Income and price elasticities of natural gas demand in Pakistan: A disaggregated analysis. Energy Economics, 113, 106203.
Kani, A. H., Abbasspour, M., & Abedi, Z. (2014). Estimation of demand function for natural gas in Iran: Evidences based on smooth transition regression models. Economic Modelling, 36, 341-347.
Khan, M. A. (2015). Modelling and forecasting the demand for natural gas in Pakistan. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 49, 1145-1159.
Kostakis, I., Lolos, S., & Sardianou, E. (2021). Residential natural gas demand: Assessing the evidence from Greece using pseudo-panels, 2012–2019. Energy Economics, 99, 105301.
Kramer, G. H. (1983). The ecological fallacy revisited: Aggregate-versus individual-level findings on economics and elections, and sociotropic voting. American political science review, 77(1), 92-111
Krichene, N. (2002). World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model. Energy economics, 24(6), 557-576.
Labandeira, X., Labeaga, J. M., & Rodríguez, M. (2006). A residential energy demand system for Spain. The Energy Journal, 87-111.
Li, R., Woo, C. K., Tishler, A., & Zarnikau, J. (2022). Price responsiveness of commercial demand for natural gas in the US. Energy, 256, 124610.
Lin, B., & Li, Z. (2020). Analysis of the natural gas demand and subsidy in China: a multi-sectoral perspective. Energy, 202, 117786.
Lin, W. T., Chen, Y. H., & Chatov, R. (1987). The demand for natural gas, electricity and heating oil in the United States. Resources and Energy, 9(3), 233-258.
Liu, B. C. (1983). Natural gas price elasticities: variations by region and by sector in the USA. Energy Economics, 5(3), 195-201.
Liu, G., Dong, X., Jiang, Q., Dong, C., & Li, J. (2018). Natural gas consumption of urban households in China and corresponding influencing factors. Energy policy, 122, 17-26.
Maddala, G. S., Trost, R. P., Li, H., & Joutz, F. (1997). Estimation of short-run and long-run elasticities of energy demand from panel data using shrinkage estimators. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 15(1), 90-100.
Malzi, M. J., Ettahir, A., & Hanchane, S. (2019). Responsiveness of Residential Natural Gas Demand to Elderly, Urban Population and Density: Evidence from Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Countries. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(4), 388-395.
Meier, H., & Rehdanz, K. (2010). Determinants of residential space heating expenditures in Great Britain. Energy Economics, 32(5), 949-959.
None, N. (2016). Annual Energy Outlook 2016 With Projections to 2040 (No. DOE/EIA-0383 (2016)). USDOE Energy Information Administration (EI), Washington, DC (United States). Office of Energy Analysis.
Orlov, A. (2015). An assessment of optimal gas pricing in Russia: A CGE approach. Energy Economics, 49, 492-506.
Ota, T., Kakinaka, M., & Kotani, K. (2018). Demographic effects on residential electricity and city gas consumption in the aging society of Japan. Energy policy, 115, 503-513.
Parks, R. W. (1967). Efficient estimation of a system of regression equations when disturbances are both serially and contemporaneously correlated. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62(318), 500-509.
Payne, J. E., Loomis, D., & Wilson, R. (2011). Residential natural gas demand in Illinois: evidence from the ARDL bounds testing approach. Journal of Regional Analysis & Policy, 41(2), 138-147.
Pindyck, R. S. (1979). The structure of world energy demand (No. 22, pp. 309-317). Cambridge, MA: MIT press.
Rubaszek, M., Szafranek, K., & Uddin, G. S. (2021). The dynamics and elasticities on the US natural gas market. A Bayesian Structural VAR analysis. Energy Economics, 103, 105526.
Santos, G. F. (2013). Fuel demand in Brazil in a dynamic panel data approach. Energy Economics, 36, 229-240.
Soldo, B. (2012). Forecasting natural gas consumption. Applied Energy, 92, 26-37.
Statistics, I. E. A. (2018). Natural Gas Information 2018. International Energy Agency.
Strotz, R. H. (1957). The empirical implications of a utility tree. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 269-280.
Strotz, R. H. (1959). The utility tree--a correction and further appraisal. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 482-488.
Sun, C., & Ouyang, X. (2016). Price and expenditure elasticities of residential energy demand during urbanization: An empirical analysis based on the household-level survey data in China. Energy Policy, 88, 56-63.
Tinic, S. M., Harnden, B. M., & Janssen, C. T. L. (1973). Estimation of rural demand for natural gas. Management Science, 20(4-part-ii), 604-616.
Verhulst, M. J. (1950). The theory of demand applied to the French gas industry. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 45-55.
Wadud, Z., Dey, H. S., Kabir, M. A., & Khan, S. I. (2011). Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh. Energy Policy, 39(11), 7372-7380.
Yoo, S. H., Lim, H. J., & Kwak, S. J. (2009). Estimating the residential demand function for natural gas in Seoul with correction for sample selection bias. Applied Energy, 86(4), 460-465.
Yu, Y., Zheng, X., & Han, Y. (2014). On the demand for natural gas in urban China. Energy Policy, 70, 57-63.
Zeng, S., Chen, Z. M., Alsaedi, A., & Hayat, T. (2018). Price elasticity, block tariffs, and equity of natural gas demand in China: Investigation based on household-level survey data. Journal of cleaner production, 179, 441-449.
Zhang, Y., Ji, Q., & Fan, Y. (2018). The price and income elasticity of China's natural gas demand: A multi-sectoral perspective. Energy Policy, 113, 332-341.
Zhou, W., Wu, X., Ding, S., & Pan, J. (2020). Application of a novel discrete grey model for forecasting natural gas consumption: A case study of Jiangsu Province in China. Energy, 200, 117443.
Téléchargements
Publiée
Comment citer
Numéro
Rubrique
Licence
(c) Tous droits réservés Malzi 2024
Ce travail est disponible sous licence Creative Commons Attribution - Pas d’Utilisation Commerciale 4.0 International.
